Friday, May 8, 2009


It feels like we are in a "mini-2006" right now, which was a bubblicious jubilee in a credit-intoxicated delirium as prices hovered in orbit well beyond any stones throw of fundamentals. Generally, in jobs and the stock market there seems to be an optimism out of proportion and disconnected from the gravity of the facts.

Since mid-March the stock market has made a robust comeback from its 6000-range lows, back into the mid-8000 range. Among job-seekers I know there doesn't seem to be the weight of economic pessimism beating down as it has been at least since the holiday season.

Still though, this mini-correction of the economy is a far cry from its speculative highs and is following the pattern of a dead cat bounce found in the midst of any crash. To the degree that quantitative easing is contributing, and it may be, even though one would still anticipate this faux-recovery without it, quantitative easing will still be an economic burden in the long run weighing on us later either through a restriction of economic activity through tight credit and reduced government spending; or a devaluation of cash and debt—in other words inflation.

As always, since those whose wealth is stored as debt are the same ones who pull the cranks and turn the levers on the money machine, I think we'll see trends toward deflation in the long run.

It's still cheaper to rent than to buy, and P/E ratios still stink. The job market continues to contract, and for each job lost, that is a further decline in economic velocity which builds as it cycles.

But for those who remember fondly 2003-2006, current events should arouse a pleasant sense of deja vu, while it lasts.

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